Brad Gilbert

CEO & Founder of Traders4Traders – Brad has been trading for 28 years and was a former Chief FX Trader for Citibank. Brad trades mostly the Asian Market.

Trades: EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, JPY, CHF, DOW, SP500, OIL, GOLD

 

Overview

Now the dust has settled after the RBA interest rate cut today I can see clearly where the AUD is heading, and it’s not up! The RBA will be chasing their tail for some time as they try and spark a ‘dead – running backward’ economy. In my opinion, it’s the sh*t storm Australia never had after the global financial crisis and with household debt, at epic levels, it couldn’t come at a worse time. Many are calling it the perfect storm!

But what do we pair it with? A neutral currency of course and no better than the JPY at the moment especially with all the global unrest in the world at the moment. We’ve got loads of global uncertainties: US/China trade dispute, US/Iran conflict, Brexit, HK erupting etc… if any of these escalate the JPY will appreciate and that’s exactly what I’m looking for. A currency that rallies as everything turns sour.

Conclusion: AUDJPY is my pair of choice to attack the AUD.

Current Technicals: Sideways

Hourly Cloud Resistance: 75.80

Hourly Support: 75.48

AUDJPY HOURLY CHART – Current Price 75.55

Current Fundamentals: Down

Central Bank Sentiment: Down

Geopolitical Impact: Down

Upcoming Potential Fundamental Drivers

Trade Execution

Our Preference

This trade is all about timing. The fundamentals are clear but current momentum is not.

Short positions below 75.40 or selling rallies back towards 76.00 OR if USDJPY breaks 108.00 just sell at market!

Stop Loss – I’m thinking once we get momentum the trade will run so you want to have a decent stop loss to start with (50 pips+) and then make it trail the market by at least 50 pips, once it gets moving.

Take Profit – At least 200 pips. There is major Daily trendline support at 73.10, so get them back just above there at 73.25.

Alternative Scenario

Above 76.00, it’s time to wait for key US data or Aussie Employment data or geopolitical unrest (which could come out of the left field at any time).

Execution Software

If trading the technical levels: Trendline Trader or Ichimoku Cloud Trader

If trading live: T-Rex Live Trader or Guerrilla Trader

Share this analysts pick with others…

Forex Trading Courses, workshops & funding opportunities

Get Funded
Join our Forex T4TCapital Trading Programme and let us run the risk!
Get Educated in your own time and learn how the bankers trade.
Our Complete Online Forex Trading Course is the ideal starting point for all traders, both beginners and veterans .
Make trading a full-time career
Our Fast Track Forex Trading Workshops will take you from the beginning to being a full time trader in 5 days.