What to Watch for this Week?

We have a blockbuster week of economic data and central bank meetings but it could potentially be railroaded by a huge variety of geopolitical issues, most of which have been artifically created by Trump.

We have the usual ongoing Brexit issues to deal with – after UK PM May urged the European Union to show more flexibility in talks on a future relationship but failed to convince traders a smooth Brexit transition deal is assured.

There is still the uncertainty surrounding the NAFTA discussions – Canada & Mexico hang in the balance.

There is the Italian election – which is expected to end in political gridlock.

And then there’s the Trump tariffs on Steel & Aluminium – which could destabilise global trade agreements and economies – most notably China, Japan & Europe.

Unfortunately the natural flow of the USD (which was rallying before Trump made his announcements) is now thrown into disarray.

There is so much confusion around the implentation and impact of the tariffs no one really knows whether they should be buying or selling.

We really have to watch the impact on the equity & treasury markets to work out what the USD is going to do.

All in all I think currency direction is going to be somewhat random even with the Central bank meetings and the US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

This Weeks Key Fundamental Drivers

Tuesday 6th

AUST RBA Rate Decision & Statement

Forecast: No change expected

Wednesday 7th

AUST Gross Domestic Product

Forecast: Q/Q+0.6%, Y/Y 2.5%

Euro Zone Gross Domestic Product

Forecast: Q/Q 0.6%, Y/Y 2.7%

CAD BOC Rate Decision & Statement

Forecast: No change expected

Thursday 8th

JAPAN Gross Domestic Product

Forecast: Q/Q 0.2%, Annualised 0.9%

CHINA Trade Balance

Forecast: -5.30B

EZ ECB Rate Decision, Statement & Press Conference

Forecast: No change expected

Friday 9th

JAPAN BOJ Rate Decision & Press Conference

Forecast: No change expected

UK Manufacturing Production

Forecast: M/M 0.2%, Y/Y 2.8%

US Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate

Forecast: 200K & 4.0%

CAD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

Forecast: 17.5K & 5.9%

Technical Set Up – What’s Happening with the Majors

We’ve got classic geopolitical markets with most majors trading sideways in pretty big ranges, whilst the USD goes down against the YEN and up versus the CAD.

I expect these loose trading conditions to last all week.

Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan!

The idea of our “Market Insight” is to give you some guidance into your daily preparation.

Your Daily Analysis needs to become habitual.

Make sure you don’t waste unnecessary time in front of the screens.

Remember you need to be fresh, confident and ready to trade and by sitting aimlessly in front of your screens you will become stale and uncertain.

The key to your sucess: Isolate the opportunities that work for you and focus on them.

Don’t worry about things that you can’t make…..chasing them will only cause problems (tiredness & irrational behaviour will take over).

Tune up your charts & get ready to trade.

Brad