ECB on hold as market awaits Trump sign off on tariffs

ECB President Mario Draghi

How Do We Make Money Today?

Well it’s been a sketchy sort of a week and that’s once again thanks to the geopolitical sh*t storm created by the Donald. It’s just another step forward on his mission to ‘make America great again’.

The majors are swinging about on random political updates and loose fluctuations in the equity markets. Main stream economics have been brushed as have some of the central bank comments.

So where’s the cash in these gyrating loose ‘range-bound’ markets?

The plan hasn’t changed but the strategies we use should adjust to the market conditions. Geopolitical events generally create loose range-bound markets with loads of ‘false breaks’.

So focus on your technicals for entries but maybe change the structure of your strategies from a break trade to a false break.

Don’t expect a lot from the economic calendar as that data will be largely brushed aside.

Today’s ECB meeting would usually be at the top of most media reports but funnily enough it’s barely coming up anywhere.

So I’m not holding out for anything from the ECB. The Trump tariffs could potentially change the fiscal policy of many countries and that needs to be assessed by the central banks before they make any adjustments to monetary policy.

So right now…all central banks will be on hold. That goes for the BOJ tomorrow as well.

Trump says he is looking to sign off on the Tariff’s this Friday. Let’s hope so as that will at least remove one uncertainty. Then we can get stuck into the aftermath shock and/or trade wars that it will create.

One thing you need to understand is the USA is probably the only country that has a full 360 degree economy. They can survive without other countries, but most countries can’t survive without them, so Trump has the upper hand & he knows it. Other countries can threaten trade wars but in the end they will have nothing to gain because no one else will buy their products!

Bring it on I say…. at least it will make for some good trading volatility.

Trading Pairs to Focus On

There’s only a few key events today. The AUD & YEN will be active with Trade balance data on both plus Japanese GDP data.

Keep an eye on the Chinese Trade Balance data as that is bound to become a key number once Trump signs off on his tariffs.

The main event though is the ECB meeting.


Check our Next Best Trades Watchlist for full details as to which specific pairs we are focusing on.

Technical Set Up – What’s Happening with the Majors

Check our Daily Analysis for detailed analysis of the Major currency pairs.

Today’s Fundamental Drivers

Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan!

The idea of our “Market Insight” is to give you some guidance into your daily preparation.

Your Daily Analysis needs to become habitual – For full guidance on our daily routine click here.

Make sure you don’t waste unnecessary time in front of the screens.

Remember you need to be fresh, confident and ready to trade and by sitting aimlessly in front of your screens you will become stale and uncertain.

The key to your sucess: Isolate the opportunities that work for you and focus on them.

Don’t worry about things that you can’t make…..chasing them will only cause problems (tiredness & irrational behaviour will take over).

Tune up your charts & get ready to trade…..see you in the 247 Trade Zone!


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