It’s the monthly smash’em up Non Farm Payrolls day!

Forex Daily Market Insight

What Happened Yesterday

Well it was a big day for Sterling yesterday as the BOE went against market sentiment that they would be taking a more hawkish approach to monetary policy going forward. The belief was there would be a change in the Vote Count and they would talk up the prospects of higher rates down the track following the path of the ECB.

If anything it was to the contrary with no changes across the board and a pretty subdued Minutes suggesting they are on a wait and see approach with no clear time frame. That saw GBP get hammered across the board.

Check out the carnage on the GBP crosses below.

If anything I totally under-estimated how much the market had factored in a hawkish BOE. Clearly from the result it was a done deal in many traders minds and that’s why we saw such a massive cleanout as those positions had to be unwound at the same time as everyone else was getting short.

So that was the big news or event. The rest of the trading day was pretty subdued with the USD giving up a little ground as weaker second tier data came in softer than forecasts.

But that’s all behind us as it’s “Non-Farm Payrolls Friday Mo-Fo’s”! This is a big release in the context of the FED’s future rate decisions. If anything the market has started factoring out further hikes but if this data beats expectations then it could be back on the cards. It’s going to be damn exciting!

If you haven’t already knocked off for the week why don’t you join our webinar as I try to tame the beast LIVE!

Today’s Fundamental Drivers

Let’s face it today is all about the Non-Farm Payrolls so there’s no need to spend all day in front of your screens. If anything check out the Aussie data at 11.30 AEST otherwise relax and enjoy your day and tune in later on just before the Non-Farms is released.

Technical Set Up – What’s Happening with the Majors

The majors are bit of a mixed bag really. The EUR is the best trending currency at the moment and definitely one worth following. The rest well they’ve had short term clean outs and should trade sideways into the NFP data.

Note: going into the NFP release the USD is in a downtrend so the best trades are with the trend! Don’t go fighting the trend.

EURUSD

The trend is upwards so the best trade is buying EURUSD. It has to be a massive strong NFP number to change this trend.

GBPUSD

The trend is down so focus on a strong NFP as that’s the best trade.

USDCHF

Who knows with tis puppy? Too hard for my liking!

USDJPY

The trend is down so I’ll be looking to short this pair.

AUDUSD

Trading sideways at the moment with a downward bias. So it could go either way!

NZDUSD

Trading sideways at the moment with a downward bias. So it could go either way!

USDCAD

It’s still in a long term downtrend and that won’t change with this release. But we may see some wild price action as we have both US & Canadian employment data released at the same time. It will be loose so be careful!

Today’s Focus – Major Currencies in Play

You need to follow the economic data releases & best technical set ups to work out where the majority of action and interest will be.

EURUSD

Technical Set Up: Strong Support comes in at 1.1825

Fundamental Driver: US NFP

Potential Strategy: I like the topside. Buy at market on weak US data or if the data is only slightly stronger then buy a dip back towards support. We’re going to need a massive number +250 to break this trendline!

AUDUSD

Technical Set Up: Short term support comes in at 0.7930.

Fundamental Driver: Aust Retail Sales & RBA Monetary Policy Statement + US NFP

Potential Strategy: The Aussie is already trading with a weak tone so I’m looking for a trade to the downside on weak Aussie data or strong US data

USDCAD

Technical Set Up: It’s right in the middle of a big range. Solid Resistance is back at 1.2680.

Fundamental Driver: US & CAD employment data

Potential Strategy: I’m looking to get short on a rally towards 1.2680 or if the data matches up and is strong for CAD then sell on the release. But that’s going to be mighty tricky!

Next Best Trade Update

I’ll finally have the page up today. I just have to input the history and then it’s up. Believe it’s going to be worth the wait as it will explain what we’re doing when looking for the Next Best Trade.

There will be a list of the orders with all the parameters and then you can also drill into the trades and see the actual set ups. It’s pretty cool.

Of course Elite traders will be able to copy the trades they like onto their MT4 platforms.

Summary

It’s a big day guys so don’t get yourself all bent out of shape with anticipation. The NFP is not for the feint hearted so if you haven’t traded these big releases sit back and watch as I’ll be doing it for sure.

This is the action we were specifically trained for and I’ll hopefully be able to articulate what I’m doing during the webinar.

It’d be great to see you there so click on the link above and we’ll see you later today for a solid rundown and hopefully loads of cash!

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