We have another big week coming up for GBPUSD (Sterling) with both legs, GBP, and the USD, expecting major economic data.
Trade deal – China and US
But to get the ball rolling early we’re seeing the USD rally after news broke that China and the US agreed on a trade deal and canceled all pending ‘tariffs’. The finer points of the trade deal are yet to be finalized but it’s a huge step for the USD and what we’re seeing in the market is the USD rallying against all other major currencies.
That trade deal should give the USD clear upward sentiment to start the week & that runs with the current trend. So trading conditions should be good for us and I’ll be looking to sell most major pairs on rallies back towards resistance.
We really need to wait for Wednesday to get some solid high impacting economic data with European and UK data as well as the FED Minutes from their last meeting.
Then Thursday/Friday are littered with lots of UK & US data as well as a bunch of FOMC Members speaking.
I think the busiest trading with be during the North America sessions. Keep an eye on US treasury yields as they were driving the USD last week. Pressure has been relieved somewhat on the treasuries after they hit a high above 3.12% last week & drifted back to 3.07%. They are sure to come into play after the FED Minutes on Wednesday.
There are loads of opportunities in the backend of the week so keep your powder dry and plan your week around the events that you can fit in with your schedule.
This Weeks Key Fundamental Drivers
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
AUST RBA Gov Lowe Speech
Forecast: M/M +0.3%, Y/Y 2.3%
US FOMC Minutes
UK Retail Sales
Forecast: M/M -0.1%, Y/Y 1.4%
EuroZone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
US House Price index
UK GDP Preliminary
Forecast: M/M 0.2%, Y/Y 1.3%
US Durable Goods
US FED Powells Speech
Technical Set Up – What’s Happening with the Majors
Sterling & Euro both look set to continue lower with both countries experiencing weak economics and/or sour geopolitical influences.
The antipodeans (the AUD & NZD) have steadied and really need a kick to get them moving again. Today’s weak NZ retail sales have started a downward move.
The CAD continues to grind in a big range as varying Canadian economic data offset the rallying Oil price. We also have NAFTA hanging over the CAD and that’s contributing to the sideways markets.
USDJPY is doing it’s best to rally but it’s somewhat on the sidelines at the moment. It looks like it needs fresh US data to get it moving with more momentum.
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