US Tax Bill keeps markets on hold for now; loads of data today!
What Happened Yesterday
The USD Index was steady on Wednesday, supported by strong U.S. third-quarter economic growth data, but uncertainty surrounding lawmakers’ efforts to pass a tax bill kept dollar bulls in check.
The USD index was at 93.25, little changed on the day trading within a 20 point range.
Congressional Republicans scrambled on Wednesday to reformulate their tax-cut bill to satisfy lawmakers worried about how much it would expand the federal deficit, as the measure moved toward a U.S. Senate floor vote later this week.
The U.S. Senate will vote later Wednesday on whether to begin debate on a Republican tax bill, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told the chamber.
The USD has drawn support of late from strong data and remarks on Tuesday by Federal Reserve chair nominee Jerome Powell signaling that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates again next month, Bechtel said.
Data on Wednesday showed the U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter, notching its quickest pace in three years, as increases in business investment in inventories and equipment offset a moderation in consumer spending. But let’s be realistic the growth was only marginally better.
The USD contineus to edge higher against the YEN, as U.S. Treasury yields climbed after the upbeat GDP data.
Bitcoin seems to be a winner with the media so they keep feeding the masses with updates. It zoomed past $11,000 to hit a record high of $11,395 before pulling back to trade at $9,500, down 3.7% on the day.
Sterling was 0.59% higher at 1.3415, a two-month high after European Union diplomats said that Britain has moved “close” to EU demands over Brexit, although concerns that differences remain on key conditions capped the currency’s gains on Wednesday.
The Canadian dollar weakened to a nearly four-week low against its U.S. counterpart as oil prices start to get the wobbly boot.
Today’s Fundamental Drivers
There’s loads of data out across the board today. So no matter where you are you should have something to focus on. Hopefully we get some variance and the currencies start moving!
Technical Set Up – What’s Happening with the Majors
Sometimes the majors just don’t make sense. The USD is going up against some and down against others….what the?
Well it’s the isolated country events causing the discombobulation. Just relax and let them do their thing…it’ll be back to normal before you know it!
AUDUSD
Continues to drift lower …. watch Aussie Capex data today & Chinese Manufacturing.
NZDUSD
It’s starting to trade erratically in a choppy range. I’m waiting for the next round of US data.
USDJPY
Slowly grinding higher against the short term trend. Focus is on US Consumption data today.
EURUSD
It looks like it’s found a home around 1.1850. Focus turns to Eurozone Inflation & US data today.
GBPUSD
Brexit carnage…. it’s hard to gauge momentum but shurly it’s overdone up here.
USDCHF
Drifting sideways at the moment. We really need something out of the USD to get this moving!
USDCAD
Oil starting to trade a little more volatile and drift lower and that’s driving USDCAD higher. Too hard at the moment.
Today’s Focus – Major Currencies in Play
You need to follow the economic data releases & best technical set ups to work out where the majority of action and interest will be.
AUDUSD
Technical Set Up: Support @0.7540 & Resistance @0.7621
Fundamental Driver: Aust Capex data + Chinese Manufacturing + US Consumption
Potential Strategy: The AUD has lost all momentum so trade live with the data!
EURUSD
Technical Set Up: Support @1.1815 & Resistance @1.1965
Fundamental Driver: Eurozone Inflation & Unemployment + US Consumption
Potential Strategy: The Euro has lost all momentum so I’ll be trading live with the data.
Upcoming Webinars
Join us for the 1st of a 5 part Series on: How the Bankers trade forex
Part 1: How the bankers prepare, mind set, daily routine, focus & all the little components that make them tick.
Believe me, Hollywood has a lot to answer for!
Don’t get me wrong, the traders have a hell of a lot of fun but when the market is ‘on’ they are at full speed forward!
On TODAY 11.00AM AEDT (check the T4T Calendar for local times)
The webinar will go for around 30 minutes – short and to the point!
Summary
I know it’s been a slow week and the markets have been bit of a drag, but hey that’s what you get in the last week of the month.
And before you turn the computers off for the week check out today’s range of data…it’s huge with opportunities across the board.
It’s time to load up and get your trade plan ready as trading will be live on the data releases.
Tune up your charts & get ready to trade.
Brad
