Today’s focus turns to AUD, EUR & more US Data
If you haven’t already worked it out, let me spell it out for you….. the US economy is the best-performing economy globally and has the strongest core fundamentals, so the USD should be and will be higher as we move forward after the FED Meeting.
FED: The US Federal Reserve knows it, recognizes it, and has set the path for at least 2 (maybe 3 hikes) in 2018. The US economy is extremely robust at the moment and even expected to pick up further as Trump’s tax cuts & fiscal stimulus kick in.
So if you haven’t already been doing so, it’s time to start buying USD, or at the very least, start considering it after the FED Meeting.
The rest of the globe is floundering with the UK leading the charge.
Now the FED is out of the way and the USD is back in the groove rallying higher, we can really put the upcoming releases to work.
We have the clear direction, it’s just a matter of running with the releases that follow that direction OR possibly looking for short-term positions against the trend if the ‘data is variant’ enough.
Non-Farm Payrolls Friday should be another blockbuster, but we have several events to navigate before then.
Check our Next Best Trades Watchlist for full details as to which specific pairs we are focusing on.
Japan is still on Holidays so the session will be lacking its normal robust liquidity from all the Japanese housewives.
But we do have some interesting Housing numbers to watch on the AUD.
Historically this data is inconsequential but since the Aussie housing market has been overheating for a number of years, and the majority of household debt is tied up in them, this data has become important.
The overall trend for the AUDUSD is down but recently it’s starting trading sideways suggesting a counter rally may be on the cards. So we should expect variance either side of the market to move the currency pair.
We’re in for a great trading session. The EUR is currently reacting well to ‘economic data’ so today’s CPI & PPI data comes at the perfect time.
Plus we’ve got another chance to hit GBPUSD with UK services data due. Weak data = Sell GBP.
All in all, I expect this to be a good trading session.
North American Session
There should be plenty of activity with a number of US data releases scheduled. We’ve got the usual employment/ labor cost data but don’t be mistaken the NFP data Friday is the main game.
The USD is rolling along nicely so you should expect it to continue to rally if this data comes out strong or as expected.
There also the Canadian Trade Balance due. This isn’t a huge number “unless’ there’s large variance. The CAD is trading sideways within a decent range so I’m not overly expecting a clean trade. But you never know if you don’t show!
Technical Set Up – What’s Happening with the Majors
Today’s Fundamental Drivers
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